Reviving the Republican Party in the West

I combed through the presidential election results over the past few days and I made some very disturbing discoveries. First, not counting AZ, only two counties in the West (defined as the states of CA, OR, WA, ID, MT, WY, NM, CO, AZ. NV, UT) were more red this election cycle than in 2004. Even worse, compared to 2000, just 19 counties in the West were more red. In both 2000 and 2004, no urban county voted more Republican for president.

This should be especially disturbing to the GOP since the ticket had two Westerners running, plus it was thought that McCain's maverick stance and Palin's individuality and strong stance on guns and being a small business owner before entering politics would carry the ticket far in the West.

This decline can't be blamed on evangelicals staying home. They voted 75-25% for McCain, which is as strong or stronger showing as Bush rec'd in 2000 and 2004.

Here's some raw data to flesh out the Republican decline:

Blue Counties in 2000 in West: 72
Blue Counties in 2004 in West: 80
Blue Counties in 2008 in West: 126

Dark Blue Counties in West (Dark Blue means Dem Candidate won by 15% or more)

Dark Blues in 2000: 31
Dark Blues in 2004: 40
Dark Blues in 2008: 66

While the GOP was not going to win California under any circumstances, it's time to hit a panic button when reliably Republican counties like San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino voted for Obama and McCain/Palin just narrowly held onto Orange County.

The only states with a large number of counties voting more Republican now than in 2000 is OK, AR, and TN.

Why is the Republican Party in such decline here? I think the answer is that the Republican Party has forgotten the importance of good governance. The GOP historically stood for a strong defense, limited gov't, effective gov't, free markets, and certain social issues such as pro-life. Yet the Bush Admin. didn't handle the war in Iraq very well for several years; Afghanistan is in trouble; the bailouts are about to kill capitalism in order to save it; Katrina recovery was a mess; and earmarks and corruption lost the GOP majority in Congress in 2006.

While I understand that importance of the party's pro-life stance, it's not an election winner. McCain/Palin were strongly pro-life and presented a very dramatic contrast to Obama. Yet the election returns didn't show that it mattered much to the electorate-at-large or even in states with a large Catholic population.

I think the hope for the GOP lies in its governors. Its future presidential candidates should be governors who have kept taxes low, generated lots of good paying private sector jobs, emphasize education and keep state college tuitions low for state residents, and have proven crisis management skills in disasters, budget crunches, etc.